Don’t Sprint the Marathon

It’s now close to two months that the country is in a lockdown. It is an unprecedented situation. Nobody in this generation has experienced something like this.

Over these two months I have been doing a lot of listening to experts. Very early we had some analysts saying that India’s GDP growth will be close to 1.5%. A few days later some other Global Analyst (or is it a rating company) said that the growth rate will be Nil. A few more days later someone else said that it will be negative. I don’t blame them. They are compelled by their profession to give expert advice. Doesn’t matter whether it is right or not. During my college days, we had a play which had a dialogue which went, “Once this necktie suffocates you; you are qualified to say anything you want.”

A lot of people said Government is not doing anything. “Where is the package?” they asked. In the same breath they also said “If the Government announces a package the fiscal deficit will grow and then rating agencies will downgrade you.”

When the package was announced they asked, “Where is the money for the package?  And what about the downgrades?” Now that a small part of the package was announced, they said, “Oh you are only giving a loan. No payout. The announcement is nice, but will it reach people?” And then there are host of jokes on the package and the Government.

I believe that all commentators and experts on media; social or otherwise (tempted to call it anti-social; the way some debates take place) have two problems. One; they are sprinting the marathon. The marathon has to be run at a steady pace over 42 kms. At no stage will the marathoner achieve the pace a 100 metre sprinter does. All these analysts are used to running the 100 metre race – daily market movements and quarterly results.

The second is a lot of them suffer from contempt of the ruling establishment. I am not talking about their political affiliation. During my teens, it was fashionable to criticize the ruling establishment. It didn’t matter who was in power because the educated people never had any political ambitions or leanings. I see the same behavior today; with a slight difference. There are three classes today. There are bhakts on both sides and then there are what I call Intellectuals. Let’s call them Indifferents. The right side bhakts think everything that the Government is doing is good. The non-right side (refraining from calling them left or wrong which is the opposite of right) hates the Government hence it criticizes them. The Indifferent blame any Government in power. They believe that they know everything and have a responsibility to speak on everything. After all freedom of speech exists in its true sense in India. The truth actually lies somewhere in between.

These are unprecedented circumstances. It is a test for all politicians irrespective of their affiliation. We are always wise in hindsight and the Government; the politicians, the IAS officers don’t have that luxury. They have to take spot decisions in the hope that situation improves. I think all of them – irrespective of which end of the political spectrum they are; are doing a great job. It is very easy to criticize from outside.

My views about the economic package are as follows. Firstly there is a need for liquidity in the system which the Government is providing. Giving money can only work for some time. Remember the old adage, ‘Teaching someone to fish vs. giving them fish?’ Secondly it is very easy to poke holes in any proposal provided by any Government. It is very difficult to conceive one.

My piece of advice to everyone is as follows:

1.       Today the country needs us to stand together to fight a war against an unseen enemy. Let us do that.

2.       Whatever the economic package; let us help the beneficiaries (including ourselves) get the share of the same. If we are not entitled to anything; so be it.

3.       Let us follow the Government’s instructions (whether they are right or wrong) during this period and bring positivity to the fore

The fight against Corona is a long one. And it’s not only medical; it’s even economical. I am not even sure at what stage we are in. Let’s not sprint the marathon.